Invest 92L — Southwestern Gulf

Tropical depression expected to form mid-week

Formation chance — 48 hours

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Formation chance — 7 days

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What this means for Florida

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Model watch — GFS vs Euro vs ICON

Latest model imagery

MSLP maps pulled from the latest model runs, refreshed each check.

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Storm timeline

History: storms born in this exact spot

Milton (Oct 2024)

Formed in the Bay of Campeche Oct 5, drifted east, hooked northeast, exploded to Cat 5, hit Siesta Key as Cat 3. The nightmare scenario for Florida's west coast.

Opal (Oct 1995)

Born near the Yucatán, sat for days, then a trough slung it straight up the Gulf into Pensacola as Cat 3. The north-turn scenario.